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Outbound travel continues to shift to domestic travel, and domestic travel will reach 10 billion in 2025

Date: 2020-10-16

Since April, the domestic tourism industry has gradually recovered, and individual and group travel within China is no longer subject to any restrictions.

Currently, there are many restrictions on travel abroad. In previous years, travelers who chose to travel abroad turned their attention back to China. Experts believe that China's outbound travel demand will continue to shift to domestic travel. It is estimated that the number of domestic tourists in China will reach 10 billion in 2025, and by 2030, it will further exceed 15 billion.

Professor Wolfgang Georg Arlt, CEO of the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, said at the China Online Tourism Summit organized by the Guangzhou International Tourism Fair (GITF) that the trend of converting outbound tourism to domestic tourism will continue to promote the further development of domestic tourism. Especially in 2021, because some Chinese tourists still have doubts about outbound travel, at the same time, the proportion of affluent people who can spend on leisure travel will further increase, and the products and services of local travel service providers will become more diverse It is expected that by 2025, the number of domestic tourists in China will reach 10 billion, and by 2030, the number of domestic tourists in China will exceed 15 billion. Among them, self-driving travel, including travel in RVs and health or education themed travel, will see the greatest growth. The first batch of wealthy seniors who are 55-65 years old will also enter the market.

At present, the epidemic has been stably controlled in China, and China has once again become the most active tourist area in the world. Since April, the domestic tourism industry has gradually recovered, and individual and group travel within China is no longer subject to any restrictions. Moreover, the summer provides good business development opportunities for China's tourism industry, and the "exotic" southwest region is particularly sought after. At the same time, flight and train services have returned to their pre-epidemic levels. Exhibitions and conferences that gather a large number of people are also going on. At this stage, online travel agencies still have the largest market share in China's tourism industry with Ctrip.

It is worth noting that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has changed the way Chinese people travel abroad. In the next ten years, Chinese tourists will restart their outbound travel. In addition to building a sense of trust, they also look forward to enjoying immersion, embedded equation experience, or living the same way as the locals, and pursuing greater satisfaction. At the same time, Chinese tourists will also be more interested in nature, authenticity, local culture, family travel and themed tourism. Based on this, the tourism industry must make product adjustments based on market segmentation. Customers who are satisfied with the journey will lay the foundation for recommendation marketing and word-of-mouth marketing. Key opinion customers, and user-generated content, will replace social media marketing.

In terms of outbound travel, China’s outbound travel is expected to grow strongly, as the proportion of the population with passports will increase to 20%. China's outbound tourism mainly takes the Asia-Pacific region and Europe as its main destinations. Among them, less crowded places and new destinations will be more popular. According to a recent survey, about 20% of Chinese outbound travelers will want to leave the country as soon as possible, while 40% want to start outbound travel before 2021. To restart outbound travel, the premise is to provide visas, flights and other services, and to achieve passengers' trust in local safety and health. Unfortunately, due to the impact of the epidemic, many destinations have announced that they will maintain border closures until the end of 2020, including Thailand and Australia, which are popular among Chinese tourists. Bali and Phuket, which originally planned to win tourists for the October Golden Week, had to cancel their opening plans. However, starting from the end of October, Phuket will once again be open to tourists from mainland China.

From the perspective of inbound tourism, family visits by business partners, students and Chinese holding foreign passports will increase, resulting in a slight increase in the total number of inbound tourists. However, China's inbound leisure tourism will continue to stagnate or even decrease until China can overcome its image of a polluted, expensive, and overcrowded destination and can update its marketing methods.

Professor Wolfgang Georg Arlt believes that looking forward to the future, there is no need for the tourism industry to return to 2019. In the past, it faced many problems such as excessive tourism, environmental degradation, employee dissatisfaction, local dissatisfaction and low profit margins. As the core of the key performance indicators of tourism industry in the future, satisfaction is bound to achieve better results for all stakeholders.